冠察天下 | 中国经济如何逆势崛起？
Editor's Note: What is the state of China's economic recovery post-pandemic? Do the economic numbers reflect the challenges and opportunities on the ground? In this episode of Reality Check with Wang Guan, CGTN anchor Wang Guan breaks down some key economic data, and discusses the prospects of the world's second largest economy with World Bank's China Director Martin Raser and Vanguard Investment Strategy Group's Chief Economist Wang Qian.
编者按：疫情过后的的中国经济现状如何？经济数据能否反映中国面临的真正挑战？本期观察天下，CGTN主播对话世界银行中国局局长芮泽和美国最大基金公司之一Vanguard首席经济学家王黔，对中国经济现状犀利评估，谏言献策。
Official surveys show that 99 percent of China's large industries and 84 percent of small and medium-sized enterprises had reopened by mid-April. Industrial production, a major gauge of factory activity, grew by 3.9 percent from a year earlier, recovering from a recent drop. That growth rate, by the way, is twice as fast as most economists expected.
官方调查显示，截至四月中旬， 99%的规模以上工业企业和84%的中小企业已经复工复产。作为衡量工厂活动的重要指标，工业生产较去年同期增长3.9%，正在从近期的下滑中恢复。顺便说一下，该增长率是大多数经济学家所预期的两倍。
Another measure of economic activity is investment. In April, China's investment in fixed-assets such as machinery and land rose, so did property investment and infrastructure investment, though all are still below pre-pandemic levels. There is a slower recovery on the demand side.
4月，中国在机械、土地等固定资产上的投资，房地产投资和基础设施方面的投资均有所增长，虽然仍低于疫情前的水平。需求方面的回升稍显缓慢。
In April, retail sales, a gauge of consumer spending, fell by 7.5 percent year on year. Overseas demand has also been weak as many countries are still battling the coronavirus.
4月，衡量消费者支出的零售业销售额同比下降7.5%。海外需求仍然疲软，因为很多国家仍在抗击疫情。
In other words, Chinese factories are churning out clothes, toys and electronics faster than consumers in China or overseas want to buy them. Given the uncertainties abroad, many are looking to China's parliamentary "Two Sessions" to provide more fiscal measures to stimulate domestic consumption.
换言之，中国工厂生产服装、玩具以及电子产品的速度超过了中国和海外消费者想要购买这些产品的速度。考虑到海外的不确定性，很多人都希望中国的“两会”能出台更多财政方案刺激国内消费。
Another concern is jobs. The official urban unemployment number in April is six percent, slightly higher than 5.9 percent in March. But as you will soon hear from economists, this number may not include everyone who's out of work.
另一个担忧来自于就业。四月份城市失业率的官方数据为6%，略高于3月份的5.9%。但经济学家很快会提到，这一数字可能并不包括所有失业人口。
A silver lining of this pandemic is the expansion of China's digital economy, with online sales, teleconferencing and online entertainment thriving amid social distancing orders.
此次疫情也带来了一线光明，推动了中国数字经济的增长。线上销售、网络会议和线上娱乐由于社交距离措施的实施而得到了蓬勃发展。
Before COVID-19, China was already a digital leader – accounting for 45 percent of global e-commerce transactions. After COVID-19, bricks and mortar retail sales plummeted but online sales rose three percent in the first two months of 2020.
新冠肺炎疫情暴发之前，中国已经是数字领域的佼佼者，电商交易额占全球总量的45%。疫情暴发后，实体零售额大幅下滑，而线上销售额在2020年前两个月中增长了3%。
Company communication platform DingTalk doubled its monthly active users in a single quarter to 17 million. Leading this wave of digitization are China's private firms.
仅仅一个季度内，企业在线交流平台钉钉的月活用户便翻了一番，增至1700万。引领这一轮中国数字化浪潮的是私营企业。
At the height of COVID-19, Alipay and WeChat supported the Shanghai government's "Suishenma" health QR code launch to help contain the spread of the virus.
在疫情最严重的时候，支付宝和微信帮助上海市政府推出“随申码”健康二维码，以遏制病毒传播。
Now back to the big question, what must China do to sustain its economic recovery? How can it balance reopening the economy and preventing a second wave of the outbreak?
现在，让我们回到重要的问题上来。中国必须怎样做才能保持经济的持续复苏呢？中国应该如何在重新开放经济的同时做好疫情第二轮暴发的预防工作呢？如何面对贸易和地缘政治方面的不稳定性呢？
World Bank's China Director Martin Raser and Vanguard Investment Strategy Group's Chief Economist Wang Qian share their views with CGTN.
对此，世界银行中国局局长芮泽和美国最大基金公司之一Vanguard首席经济学家王黔分享了他们的观点。
Q: How do you look at China's economic recovery so far? What will its growth look like in 2020?
您怎么看待到目前为止中国经济的复苏情况？2020年中国经济增长会是怎样的？
Wang: I would say, what you gonna see the interesting phenomena is that even though over 90 percent of the factories, shops, restaurants has already been reopened, but they are likely to operate at a much lower level because of the demand shock.To that extent, we are not expecting a very sharp, quick rebound in second quarter. In our forecast, we are looking for the economic growth after the 6.8 percent decline in the first quarter to still record a modest contraction in the second quarter, essentially flat.
我认为，你将会看到一个非常有意思的现象，就是即使90%的工厂、商店和餐馆已经重新开放，但由于需求冲击的影响，其营业水平要远低于以前。从这个角度看，我们并不期待第二季度会有大幅迅速的反弹。我们预期，经济增长在第一季度出现6.8%的下滑后，在第二季度仍会保持适度收缩，基本与一季度持平。
And then it will be only in the second half that you start to see more meaningful recovery of the Chinese economy. One, the global economy will recover from the recession and two we will be expecting more stimulus, especially on the fiscal side, to kick in to boost up the domestic demand.
接着，从下半年开始，我们才会看到中国经济出现更有意义的复苏。这是因为第一，那时全球经济将开始从衰退中恢复；第二，国家有望出台更多刺激措施，尤其是在财政方面，来提振内需。
But I think the good news is that China will still be the first one to recover from this whole coronavirus thing relative to the rest of the world.
但我认为好消息是，与其他国家相比，中国将仍将是第一个从疫情中恢复的国家。
If you think about the Chinese economy, the composition, it's less exposed to face to face intensive service sectors compared to developing economies like U.S. or Europe. So manufacturing construction is still a big share of the Chinese economy. So the demand shock actually will affect U.S. or Europe economies much more compared to China.
中国经济及其构成，与欧美这些发达经济体相比，较少依赖面对面的服务密集型产业。制造业仍然是中国经济的重头。因此，需求冲击事实上会对欧美国家造成更大的影响。
Relatively speaking, I would say China will get back to the pre-crisis level in terms of economic activity much quicker. So by the end of this year, we should be seeing Chinese economy get back to normal already. Well, if you talk about U.S. or European economies, they are probably only coming back to normal by the end of 2021,
相对而言，我认为中国的经济活动会更快恢复到疫情前水平。到今年年底，我们将能看到中国经济恢复正常。如果说欧美国家的话，他们可能要到2021年底才能恢复到正常水平。
Q：What further stimulus can be expected from China's Two Sessions and your opinion on China's policy priorities right now?
中国两会会出台什么样的刺激方案？在您看来，中国目前政策的重点是什么？
A: Before the coronavirus, everybody was talking about five percent to six percent growth target. But I think we probably should have a much lower growth target this year. That would increase the tolerance for slower economic growth because I think the policy here is trying to cushion the downturn instead of over -stimulating the economy.
疫情暴发前，每个人都在谈5%-6%的增长目标。但我认为，我们今年目标可能应该要低很多。这会增加对经济增长放缓的容忍度，因为我认为现在的政策是力图缓冲经济下滑，而不是过度刺激。
Because I think the positive experience has already shown that it's probably too costly to over-stimulate, especially over-reliant on the monetary policy front.
因为，我认为经验表明，过度刺激经济的代价可能过高，尤其是过度依赖货币政策的刺激。
Q: How important is consumer spending when it comes to the role of consumption in boosting the Chinese economy? Do you think it is becoming even more important as external demand weakens?
消费在提振中国经济方面的作用到底有多重要呢？您是否认为随着外需减弱，消费支出会越来越重要？
A: When you look at the U.S. economy, for example, you do see that household, private consumption is about 70 percent of the overall economy. But in China, when we think about the household consumption is actually probably less than 40 percent of the economy.
举例而言，美国经济中，家庭和个人消费占70%。而中国的情况是，家庭消费在经济中的占比可能只有不到40%。
So I think there is a lot of potential for China to boost up consumption in the long term. And I think this is where we see the future of Chinese economy. You have to rebalance the economy away from exports, away from investment towards domestic consumption.
所以我认为长期来看，中国在促进消费增长方面大有潜力。而且我认为这将是中国经济的未来。你必须重新平衡经济，减少出口和投资的权重，增加内需。
That's where I think it's about the long term goal of growth rebalancing. In the near term, I would say, relatively speaking, consumption is less volatile, is more stable compared to other components of the economy, such as investment or exports.
我认为这是调整经济增长重心的长期目标。短期内，相对而言，与投资或出口等经济构成相比，消费的波动性更小，更加稳定。
Q: China's March urban unemployment rate is 5.9 percent. How do you interpret this official number? What needs to be done to address the issue of unemployment?
中国三月份城市失业率为5.9 percent。您如何看待这个官方数据？应该怎样解决失业问题？
A: Actually it is still underestimate the pressure in the labor market. I think one, it failed to capture the migrant worker who lose their job and then they just go back to their home in rural area. And then they dropped out from the employment survey. They are not counted as unemployed anymore.
事实上，这个数字仍低估了劳动力市场的压力。第一，这个数字没有考虑到，农民工在失业后会直接回农村老家。那么之后的就业调查就不会把他们包含在内，他们也就不再算作失业人口。
The second thing is that I think it failed to capture the under employment in many of the business, especially in many of the state-owned enterprises, you saw that people are still employed. They still have their job, but they are not working. So that's underemployment. That's not being captured in the 5.9 percent unemployment rate.
第二，我认为这个数字没有反应很多企业，尤其是很多国企的就业不足问题。这些人仍然有工作，但却没有上班，这就是就业不足。5.9 percent的失业率并不包括这一情况。
So I think in fact, the real pressure in the labor market is much worse than this official number are showing. And it will continue to be under pressure when you think about the export sector. Export sector are facing the pressure from weakening global demand. When you think about the export sector, they are hiring like 60 million people.
因此，我认为事实上，劳动力市场面临的真正压力要比官方数据所显示的大很多。而且考虑到出口领域的情况，就业压力还将继续。出口领域面临的压力来自于各国需求疲软。整个出口领域的就业人口大约有6千万。
I think the one of the silver lining is that a lot of the job loss actually is temporary. It's temporary because this is coronavirus shock, shops, restaurant, factory, they locked down. And the global recession in our model forecasts will last just for two quarter.
我觉得希望在于很多岗位消失只是暂时的，因为受到疫情的冲击，商店、餐馆、工厂都关门歇业。但根据我们的模型预测，全球经济衰退仅仅将持续两个季度。
So the jobs will come back.
所以，工作岗位会重新回来。
And then there are also questions about damages done by the coronavirus to global demand, U.S.-China tensions and geopolitical uncertainties. For that, I talked to Martin Raser, Country Director for China at the World Bank.
此外，还有新冠病毒对全球需求造成的冲击，中美局势紧张以及地缘政治的不确定性等问题。关于这些问题，我要邀请世界银行中国部主任马丁·拉则先生为我们分析。
Martin: I think there's not much in the short run that China can do about the state of global demand. That depends much more on the actions that other countries take to achieve their containment, and to be able to reopen their economies.
马丁·拉则：我认为短期内，中国对国际需求状况无能为力。这在很大程度上取决于其他国家为遏制疫情而采取的行动，以及他们是否有能力重新开放经济。
If that happens in the second half of the year, then I think China can look forward to recovery of external demand, which will help its own recovery. But because that's uncertain, I think China can't wait for that and needs to do more stimulus at home. That's what I, or support to the recovery at home.
如果今年下半年各国能够遏制住疫情且重新开放经济的话，那么我认为中国可以期待外部需求复苏，这将有助于其自身的经济恢复。但因为这些都不确定，我认为中国不能只是等待，而是需要在国内采取更多刺激措施。这就是我所支持的内部恢复。
That's what I talked about earlier, when I spoke about green investment, when I spoke about more social transfers, particularly to migrant workers to unemployed that you know, are likely to use additional money for consumption because they don't have a lot of savings. So, that's on the economic side.
这一点我之前在谈绿色投资的时候谈到过。我还谈到过刺激政策的社会转移，特别是向农民工和失业者转移。因为你知道，他们很可能用多余的钱来消费，因为他们没有很多储蓄。所以，这是在经济方面。
I think on the broader question of how to deal with a hostile environment, I think the answer is more opening-up. The answer is more transparency. You know, invite the world to see that you've done nothing wrong. Show them, you know that you're open for business, you're open for business on transparent and equal terms that, you know, you care about the rule of law, that you care about foreign investment.
在更大的、如何应对敌对环境这个问题上，我认为答案是更加开放，更加透明。比如邀请全世界来看看你并没有做错什么。告诉他们，你对商业持开放的态度，是在透明和平等的基础上的。你注重法治，注重外国投资。
And I think we've just seen over the past year a number of initiatives to make it easier for foreign investors to come in that financial sector in a number of other areas. I think that's the right way to go. You want the impression of the world to be a China that in the face of criticism isn't defensive and doesn't close down, but says okay, let's talk about it.
我认为，在过去的一年里，我们刚刚看到了一些举措，让外国投资者更容易进入金融领域和一些其他领域。我认为这是对的。你希望留给世界的印象是中国面对批评时，不是只顾防御，也不是封闭自己，而是说好吧，让我们来谈谈。
Sometimes you have good points to make. Sometimes we will disagree with you but at the end of the day, we are interested in, you know, being a business partner and opening our economy in continuing to benefit from the opportunities that we have by trading with each other, by investing.
有时候，你能拿出很好的观点。有时我们会不同意你的观点，但归根结底，我们有兴趣成为一个商业伙伴，开放我们的经济，继续从彼此的贸易和投资所创造的机会中获益。